Timberwolves Lose BECAUSE of Towns’ 62

Karl-Anthony Towns was on fire against the hapless Hornets, Monday night, going for 62 points, with 44 in the first half. Both are franchise records. But Karl had seven turnovers, and the Timberwolves lost at home, 128-125.

If you play with fire, you’re going to get burned, and the Wolves hopefully learned a valuable lesson about the importance of sharing the ball and spreading shots around, even when someone’s got an historically hot hand. You want to stoke multiple fires so when one goes out there’s another to warm you up. That’s easily addressed going forward. The absence of Mike Conley was likely the reason for the immature offensive effort against Charlotte, Monday. It’s the defense, or lack thereof, that’s worrisome.

The Hornets are ranked 27th in offense, averaging 108.8 points per game. Yet they’ve averaged 122.5 points per game against the NBA’s best defense in Minnesota. The Hornets play a small lineup. Their tallest starter, Brandon Miller, is six-foot-nine. He went 11-0f-13 for 27 points, so Towns wasn’t even the most efficient scorer on the floor. The entire Hornets roster shot 56.8 percent with an effective field goal percentage of 64.8. The Wolves shot 52.4 percent from the field and 63.1 percent effectively. Neither team defended well, but Charlotte has the worst defensive rating in the league and Minnesota has the best. So what the hell happened?

In their previous game against the Hornets, the Wolves allowed 117 points but managed to win by six. Conley was on the floor and effective in that one, as was Troy Brown Jr., who started the game for Jaden McDaniels and played 32 minutes. Coach Finch decided he would not play on Monday, which is a head-scratcher. Nickeil Alexander-Walker also started in place of Anthony Edwards in the first game and played 30 minutes. Here’s the differences in defensive ratings for the Wolves’ starters in each game: Gobert (131/119), Towns (132/128), McDaniels/Brown (129/126), Edwards/Alexander-Walker (132/121), Conley/Alexander-Walker (127:131).

So the Wolves’ starters were better defensively against the same small lineup despite losing McDaniels and Edwards to injury. These are supposed to be the Wolves best perimeter defenders, yet with neither of them on the floor Charlotte posted an offensive rating of 123.7, and with both of them back the Hornets averaged 130 points per 100 possessions. The Hornets also had more possessions in game two, turning it over three fewer times than Minnesota and grabbing one more offensive board. In game one, Charlotte again won the turnover battle, but the three extra possessions weren’t enough given the rate at which they scored.

There’s one common thread in the games the Wolves have played against small lineups. They give the ball away a lot more, and they take it away less. Turnovers have been a problem for the Wolves all season. Only Utah turns it over at a higher rate, but Minnesota usually limits the damage with its defense — except against small lineups. In both losses to Oklahoma City, the Wolves gave the ball away 21 times. They managed to beat OKC despite 19 turnovers thanks to nine extra free throw attempts and an effective field goal percentage of 51.3.

You’re not going to win too many games turning the ball over 21 times, but the Wolves also only had four steals despite averaging 7.5 per game. They had just four against the Hornets in game two. They had five in game one. In the win over OKC, they had just three steals. This should all make sense. The Wolves, who turn it over a ton, are going to turn it over even more against a small lineup. They’re also going to struggle stealing the ball from the better ball handlers of small lineups, which is what sparks their easiest offense. That double whammy has a helluva effect.

Minnesota would have been better off had Towns taken 10 fewer shots if it resulted in four fewer turnovers, even if only four shots are made instead of six. Given Charlotte’s effective field goal rate and the Wolves’ apparent disinterest in defending, it was more important to limit the Hornets’ possessions than it was for the Wolves to convert a higher percentage of theirs. If Towns and the Wolves end up with three turnovers instead of seven, the Thunder get one or two extra buckets instead of three or four. If Towns spreads 10 shots around, and the Wolves hit four instead of six, it’s still a one-possession game, but they might have had someone warm enough to score in the fourth quarter when Towns went cold (four points).

So while the crowd was losing its mind over Towns’ shooting, I was losing mine over Minnesota’s absent defense. Turns out the easiest way to improve the defense is to clean up the sloppy offense. By limiting their opponents’ possessions, they’ll limit the impact of the higher shooting percentage they’re going to allow against small lineups.