The Minnesota Twins might have been eliminated from the 2023 MLB Postseason, but they exit the playoffs winners for the first time in almost two decades. Not only did the Twins put a stop to their 18-game postseason losing streak, but they won a playoff series for the first time since 2002, and won a road playoff game for the first time in 10 tries. How this team managed to accomplish all that is absolutely crazy.
Crazy Way #1: Carlos Correa
On Jan. 10, 2023, we at Foul Play-by-play celebrated the Minnesota Twins’ signing of Carlos Correa to a six-year, $200 million contract. Much of the baseball world called us crazy to give Correa $33.33 million per year after he failed two physicals with two other teams that voided two other contracts that would have lasted twice as long. We called it a bargain, even if Correa only played five of six seasons. We had our superstar and team leader back in Minnesota. Our expectations for the 2023 season were modest but firm: win one playoff game.
For the first half of the season, the entire non-pitching roster of the ball club underperformed. Correa did not earn his $33.33 million during the 2023 regular season (1.4 WAR, 94 OPS+). He played with pain as a result of plantar fasciitis, and it showed. If not for 2020, the season shortened to 60 games due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 2023 would be Correa’s worst offensive season. He also posted his worst defensive metrics since his rookie year, playing an exactly average shortstop based on Total Zone Total Fielding Runs per 1,200 Innings (0.6 dWAR, however).
Then the regular season ended, the postseason started, and Carlos Correa showed everyone, in a single play even, why the Twins are paying him $33.33 million per year, and why he’s worth every penny. The Twins are paying for a playoff performer who can show and tell teammates what it takes to come up clutch in the big moments that win big games. Correa’s as clutch as they come. He’s top-10 in playoff homers, RBI, and Win Probability Added. He lives for October. He even told his wife after the 2022 season that he never wants to miss the playoffs again.
Nobody really remembers that shortened regular season in 2020; it’s not really worth remembering. The sample size was too small and there were games played without fans in the stands. You probably wouldn’t know it was Correa’s worst season had I not told you. I bet you remember the postseason, though. Hell, I hadn’t watched baseball in years, but I still jumped on the Tampa Bay bandwagon. Correa didn’t quite stand out to me because Randy Arozarena was having one of the greatest Octobers ever. He was the best player on the field in the ALCS against Houston (1.152 OPS, 4 HR, 6 RBI, 7.63% cWPA). Correa was third-best behind Jose Altuve.
If not for Arozarena (10 homers, 64 total bases in 20 games), Correa would have been the best postseason performer of 2020. He went 17-for-47 (.362) with six homers and 17 RBI in 13 playoff games. He managed to improve upon his 1.625 OPS in the Wild Card round with a 1.754 OPS in the ALDS. He posted a 6.6 percent Championship Win Probability Added (cWPA) in the ALCS, a full percentage point higher than his ALDS performance, which was more than double his cWPA in the AL Wild Card Series played in Minnesota.
Despite 69 billion to 1 odds, those two losses by the Twins in 2020 extended their playoff losing streak to 18 games, the longest in North American sports history. Correa gave Houston the lead in Game 2 of the series with a dinger to dead center in the seventh inning. It’s only fitting the player most responsible for the Twins’ 18th consecutive playoff loss played a major role in reversing the postseason fortunes of the franchise.
Correa followed up the 2023 regular season just as he did in 2020. He made “the play” that saved the day and preserved the Twins’ lead in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series against Toronto. He led the Twins with three hits in seven at-bats and was second to only to Royce Lewis in OPS, WPA, and RBI. Lewis just homered in his first two postseason plate appearances, which is the same number of knee surgeries he’s overcome. It was the Twins’ first playoff series win since 2002.
In the ALDS versus his former team, Correa was the Twins’ best player, and the second-best player on the field behind Yordan Alvarez. Minnesota starting pitcher, Pablo López, even credited Correa with improving his diet. He showcased elevated velocity in the postseason as a result, establishing himself as a bonafide ace in a dominant start in Game 2 that broke yet another Minnesota losing streak. It was the Twins’ first road playoff win since 2004.
Crazy Way #2: Strikeouts
Correa obviously contributed on and off the field to reestablishing Minnesota as “simply a quality team making a playoff run,” as Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic put it. He also contributed to the biggest obstacle the Twins had to overcome: strikeouts.
Correa struck out 131 times in 135 games, second-most behind infamous whiffer, Joey Gallo, and the Twins set the all-time MLB record for strikeouts in a season with 1,654. That’s 301 more strikeouts than 2022, which was 19th most in the majors and below league average. The Twins clearly swung for the fences on the “three true outcomes” approach to the game with the addition of Gallo and Taylor, who both finished with 21 dingers. That’s been the modus operandi of most MLB teams, and the Twins are no exception. They set the record for home runs in a season with 307 back in 2019.
That all-or-nothing approach is fine in the regular season, but against postseason pitching, the homers are harder to come by and most teams need to find a way to manufacture runs. The Diamondbacks made this blatantly obvious with their sweeps of the Brewers and Dodgers, who both had better regular season records than Arizona. The Dodgers hit the second-most home runs in 2023; the Diamondbacks were second in stolen bases (166), first in sacrifice bunts (36), and hit the ninth-fewest homers (166).
While pitching has never been better and hitting has never been more difficult, the Twins did themselves no favors at the dish. According to Fangraphs, Minnesota saw the lowest percentage of strikes thrown (49.4 percent) and had the second-lowest contact rate on pitches thrown in the strike zone (83.1 percent). In short, the Twins had the worst plate discipline in baseball. They swung at the most garbage, which allowed pitchers to avoid throwing strikes, which the Twins also struggled to hit. It was exploited beautifully by the Astros’ pitching staff in the ALDS, and if it continues, the Twins’ playoff winning ways will not.
So how’d the Twins over come their strikeout problem? Strikeouts, of course. Minnesota pitchers struck out 1,560 batters to lead all MLB teams. The aforementioned Pablo López led the staff with 234 strikeouts, third-most in baseball. Twins pitchers finished 2022 with 1,336 strikeouts, which was 2oth overall and below the league average. The front office increased the pitching staff’s strikeouts at nearly the same rate they sacrificed the offense’s ability to avoid them. They set another ugly record to break an uglier one. Speaking of ugly records…
Crazy Way #4: New Rules
No, I’m not talking about the bigger bases that made for the highest successful steal rate in MLB history and most stolen bases since 1987. The Twins didn’t have the personnel to take advantage of that new rule. They were tied for the sixth-fewest stolen bases (86) and attempted to steal just 104 bags.
I’m not talking about the new rule that allows every team to play every other team by lowering the number of divisional games from 19 to 13, either. That one actually worked against the Twins. The 2023 American League Central finished with a .442 winning percentage, narrowly avoiding another ugly record — oh wait, the AL Central already holds the record. The 2018 AL Central had a combined winning percentage of just .436. The Twins didn’t even win the season series with Detroit (5-8) and Cleveland (6-7), but they cleaned up against the White Sox (9-4) and Royals (9-4) to go 29-23 against division foes.
Had divisional opponents played each other 19 times, Minnesota would have benefited even more from their weak division. Instead, they were the first American League team to clinch their division despite finishing the season with fewer wins than the Seattle Mariners, who missed the playoffs by two games. Only two playoff teams had fewer wins than Minnesota: Miami and Arizona.
The new rule that helped the Twins most was the expansion of the playoffs to include six teams from each league. Because the Twins won their division, they got to host both Wild Card games against Toronto, which might have been the biggest home field advantage in the Wild Card round. It had been more than 20 years since Twins fans got to enjoy a playoff win, and I’ve never seen them so raucous. They were on their toes all game and ready to jump out of their seats whenever the Twins needed some support. The early innings of Game 2 when Sonny Gray got into and out of jams were electric. They weren’t “Minnesota nice” to their opposition, either, seizing every opportunity to get in the head of an opposing player.
Upon exiting Target Field after the game, I high-fived people on both sides of me telling them “I’m proud of you” and “you were great today.” It was the most fun I’ve had at a ballpark. I wept tears of joy. I’ve never been more proud of Minnesota fans. They deserve to feel like winners, because they, like Carlos Correa, performed admirably. I can’t wait to see them all at the ALCS next year.
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