The Minnesota Twins can win the World Series in 2016. They have the lineup, mostly. They just need a bat and more offensive production from catcher. The pitching is on the way in the form of Jose Berrios, Tyler Duffey, and Trevor May. They have the defense. But they need a left-handed reliever, a bat, a catcher who can hit righties, and Byron Buxton to be the player everyone has expected, even with those expectations being stoked prematurely and ultimately unfair.
Offseason Moves the Minnesota Twins Should Make
Trade Trevor Plouffe to the Los Angeles Angels for José Alvarez and a player to be named
The Minnesota Twins must make room for Miguel Sano. And the Angels didn’t make a qualifying offer to David Freese because they’re looking to avoid the luxury tax, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register noted. Freese will likely demand a multi-year deal at a higher rate than Plouffe’s arbitration figures for the next three years. They are both worth about 2 to 2.5 wins above replacement (WAR). The Twins should oblige the Angels and get their much-needed left-handed reliever in Alvarez. He pitched 67 innings last year, struck out 59 and walked 23 for an ERA of 3.49 and a WHIP of 1.209. Lefties hit just .219 off him in 2015.
Trade Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Jorge Polanco and a player to be named to the San Diego Padres for James Shields, Joaquin Benoit, and Austin Hedges
The Padres need a shortstop of the future, and although a move to second base is predicted for Polanco, he’s already better than the entire Padres’ depth chart at shortstop. Clint Barmes will be 37 next year, and his option has been declined, but Alexi Amarista isn’t the answer either.
The Padres will also have plenty of openings in the starting rotation, with Cory Luebke’s option being declined, and Ian Kennedy and Brandon Morrow becoming free agents. Petco Park is a pitcher’s dream, although the Padres don’t exactly have outfielders who can go get it.
The money is nearly even between the Twins and Padres in this deal. San Diego doesn’t need Hedges with Derek Norris in his first year of arbitration eligibility and just a year removed from an All-Star Game appearance. So the Padres end up with an MLB-ready shortstop under team control until 2018 and a couple of starting pitchers who can take advantage of the pitchers’ paradise that is Petco Park. Meanwhile, the Twins get a big arm out of the bullpen, a starter to take advantage of their “nothing falls but raindrops” outfield, and their catcher of the future to stash at Rochester for a year while he learns how to hit big league pitching.
Sign Justin Morneau to a one-year, $5 million deal
Morneau isn’t worth much at this point given his injury history, but a reunion would be fun, and he can still hit. I’d hesitate to put him in the field because he could trip and end his career. So a full-time DH role is likely best, as is a one-year deal. Morneau could be the addition that takes the Twins over the top, or the addition that allows Kennys Vargas to finally earn the full-time DH spot. Either way, he’d be a great mentor to the young Twins hitters like Vargas.
Sign AJ Pierzynski to a one-year, $2 million deal
Kurt Suzuki’s OPS was 114 points lower than his All-Star season a year prior. He hit lefties pretty well, logging an OPS of .658 against them. But he struggled mightily against righties (.587). Suzuki’s also a terrible defensive catcher, and AJ doesn’t fix that. But a righty/lefty platoon could keep both catchers fresh and produce more offense. AJ crushed righties, recording a .799 OPS in 2015.
Even with Joe Mauer’s salary accounting for more than 21 percent of Minnesota’s payroll in 2016, the Twins can still afford to absorb James Shields’ contract thanks to their pre-arbitration eligible core of youngsters.
Starting Rotation
- James Shields
- Ervin Santana
- Kyle Gibson
- Tyler Duffey
- Trevor May
- *Jose Berrios
*Jose Berrios won’t likely break camp with the Twins, but when he does get the call, a six-man rotation will keep the veterans healthy for a postseason push and acclimate him to the higher number of innings he’ll be expected to pitch in the bigs. Also, if Berrios is great, you’ll want him pitching those innings in the postseason instead of the the regular season.
Bullpen
- Glen Perkins, CL
- Joaquin Benoit, SU
- Kevin Jepsen, MR
- Casey Fien, MR
- José Alvarez, MR
- Caleb Thielbar, MR
- Tommy Milone, LR
Lineups
Twins vs. LHP (AL)
- Aaron Hicks, RF (.272/.360/.447)
- Brian Dozier, 2B (.267/.340/.487)
- Joe Mauer, 1B (.292/.362/.384)
- Miguel Sano, 3B (.284/.363/.519)
- Justin Morneau, DH (.253/.298/.410)
- Eddie Rosario, LF (.289/.311/.500)
- Byron Buxton, CF (Who cares?! He needs to play everyday!)
- Eduardo Escobar, SS (.277/.297/.492)
- Kurt Suzuki, C (.248/.311/.356)
Twins vs. RHP (AL)
- Brian Dozier, 2B (.207/.301/.445)
- Joe Mauer, 1B (.264/.344/.374)
- Justin Morneau, DH (.297/.374/.520)
- Miguel Sano, 3B (.263/.393/.535)
- AJ Pierzynski, C (.309/.342/.457)
- Eddie Rosario, RF (.260/.281/.445)
- Eduardo Nuñez, LF (85 runs saved above avg. in LF; .809 OPS vs. RHP in 2015)
- Eduardo Escobar, SS (.254/.314/.423)
- Byron Buxton, CF (.256/.297/.407)
With Vargas and outfielder Shane Robinson filling out this 25-man roster, Terry Ryan has some money he won’t spend, even though owner Jim Pohlad said there’s plenty, according to Darren Wolfson.
Talked w/ Pohlad. He and Ryan have had the payroll talk. Terry has Jim’s go-ahead to do what he wants this offseason. #mntwins
— Darren Wolfson (@DWolfsonKSTP) November 5, 2015
The addition of Shields makes things interesting for Minnesota, though. Any one of Berrios, May, Gibson, or Duffey, depending on who’s hottest latest, gives the Twins a really good chance in a Wild Card Playoff Game. And Shields isn’t a bad way to start an ALDS on the road (depending on the ballpark), with Santana pitching Game 2 (depending on the ballpark), and Gibson going in Game 3 (again, ballpark dependent). Berrios, May, Gibson, or Duffey will be ready for Game 4, and Shields can go again in Game 5. Sounds almost like a Playoff rotation.
