Why Brandon Staley is a better coach than Minnesota’s Kevin O’Connell, whether the Vikings should trade Kirk Cousins to the Jets, and whether Byron Buxton should make the Minnesota Twins’ playoff roster. 

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Should the Winless Vikings Tank for USC QB Caleb Williams?

Oft-criticized Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley served up the game to the Vikings on a silver platter by failing to convert a fourth-and-one on the Chargers’ 24-yard line with 1:51 remaining in Minneapolis on Sunday. But the Vikings weren’t hungry. 

• Immediately after the play, Anthony texted the group, “They can still fuck this up.”
  • The Chargers had an 80.5% chance to win before the fourth-down play, per ESPN’s “win probability” projection
  • Minnesota had a 70.6% chance to win after forcing the turnover on downs
• The Vikings proceeded to lose a yard on their next three plays, but was bailed out by Chargers’ cornerback Michael Davis, who was penalized for hands to the face of Justin Jefferson, who was hurt on the play
• Minnesota then took a five-yard penalty for having no timeouts in the final two minutes after TJ Hockenson hurt his hand on a Chargers’ helmet
  • He’d later return to give the Vikings their longest play from scrimmage and lone first down of the drive (nine yards) on fourth-and-five
• Instead of stopping the clock by spiking the ball with more than 30 seconds left to play, the Vikings wasted 20 seconds lining up and calling a play on first-and-goal from the six-yard line [Cousins blamed “crowd noise”]
  • Cousins proceeded to overcook another ball into traffic that Hockenson tipped and allowed to be intercepted by Kenneth Murray Jr.
• Hot take: Staley is a better coach than Kevin O’Connell
  • He can at least get the play calls to his team in a timely fashion, even if they are the wrong plays to call
    • And in this case he was right to give Kirk Cousins and the Vikings a short field
      • Minnesota has only scored touchdowns on half of their red zone opportunities
      • Alexander Mattison has eight carries for five yards in the red zone
      • Cousins gets worse the closer he gets to the end zone
        • Has completed just 47.62% of passes inside the 20 this season (two INTs) and just 35.71% of passes from inside the 10-yard line
• The Vikings visit winless Carolina next week, but should they trade Cousins to the Jets before that? 
  • Should there be a fire sale?
    • Jordan Hicks…Cousins…..Hunter….(Jefferson?)

Who Should Make the Minnesota Twins’ Playoff Roster

The Twins are a weird team, in that they’re the worst playoff team but the first in the American League to clinch their division. But who should make the playoff roster, and who should watch the games from home with Joey Gallo?

Better Damn Well be on the Rooster

Starting Rotation

• Pablo Lopez (119 ERA+, 3.39 FIP) will pitch Game 1, despite Sonny Gray actually posting better numbers this season (154 ERA+, 2.85 FIP)
  • Lopez misses more bats (10.8 K/9) than Gray (9 K/9), which will be essential when facing elite hitters in the playoffs
• Bailey Ober or Joe Ryan for Game 3, if necessary?
  • Joe strikes out more batters but allows more hits and homers

Relievers 

• Jhoan Duran, Emilio Pagan, Caleb Theilbar, Griffin Jax, Kenta Maeda, Chris Paddack (throwing 98 in relief) and Brock Stewart?
• Kody Funderberk! 

Position Players

• At one point on Sunday, the Twins had five players in the lineup sporting an OPS over .800
  • Edouard Julien, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Matt Wallner, and Alex Kirilloff
  • Ryan Jeffers didn’t play, but leads the team in OPS (.841) and OPS+ (130)
  • Donovan Solano and Willi Castro both have above average OPS+
  • Michael A. Taylor and Kyle Farmer have both posted positive oWAR, dWAR and oRAR
  • Carlos Correa is a postseason god
    • Top-10 all-time in postseason win probability added, home runs, and RBI

Kinda Need ’em

• Gotta have a backup catcher, so Christian Vazquez makes the roster despite posting negative WAR and RAR

Wait and See

• Byron Buxton
  • Can he play center at an elite level or can he hit…at all? If not, Andrew Stevenson should come off the bench. 

Mike’s Minnesota Twins Postseason Roster

Pitchers

1. Sonny Gray (game 1 starter—2 times through rotation and then pull him)
2. Pablo Lopez (Game 2 starter)
3. Kenta Maeda (game 1 relief for Sonny Gray)
4. Bailey Ober [or Louie Varland] (possible game 3 starter—very short leash)
5. Joe Ryan (possible game 3 starter—very short leash)
6. Jhoan Duran
7. Griffin Jax
8. Caleb Thielbar
9. Emilio Pagan
10. Chris Paddack
11. Louie Varland [or Brock Stewart]   {I’m really torn on who gets left out between Varland, Stewart, or Ober….or do we get wild and throw another lefty in the mix with the coolest name “Kody Funderburk”}

Catchers

12. Ryan Jeffers
13. Christian Vasquez

Infielders

14. Carlos Correa (R)
15. Royce Lewis (R)
16. Jorge Polanco (S)
17. Donovan Solano (R)
18. Alex Kirilloff (L)
19. Kyle Farmer (R)
20. Edouard Julien (primarily DH) (L)

Outfielders

21. Matt Wallner (L)
22. Michael A. Taylor (R)
23. Max Kelpler (L)
24. Willi Castro (S)
25. Andrew Stevenson (L) base stealing threat

Wild Card

26. Austin Martin or Brooks Lee (their lack of experience makes them naive enough to not be intimidated by elite pitching, and pitchers’ unfamiliarity with them could be advantageous)

Yes, I leave Buxton off the list for the first round of playoffs. If he is not 100 percent healthy I don’t see what he does for the team. He can’t steal bases, can’t play the field, too scary to have him be a pinch hitter, and hasn’t looked good in his 12 at bats in St. Paul. It’s a crime if they have him DH and remove at bats from Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner, or Solano.

SBLive Minnesota Amateur Sports Stars of the Week

Each week, Anthony reports the best high school athletic performances in the state of Minnesota for SBLive, part of the Sports Illustrated Media Group. You can vote for your favorite by following the link in our show notes or going to scorebooklive.com/minnesota/ and clicking on my byline.

Bronze medalist: Junior Ava Ball of Nova Classical Academy scored 126 kills over seven volleyball matches last week, which propelled her into first place in the state with 237 kills.

Silver medalist: Senior Roberto Perez-Ordaz of Winona Cotter boys’ soccer posted seven goals and 10 assists over three games played, making him Minnesota’s leader in assists (22) and runner-up in goals (20).

Gold medalist: Junior Camden Hungerholt of LeRoy-Ostrander H.S. finished with 384 total yards, rushing 40 times for 256 yards and three touchdowns in a 24-21 win. He also had five solo tackles and seven total tackles on defense. He leads the state in rushing yards (1,029) and rushing touchdowns (17).