Every longtime sports better dreams about moving to the glitz and glamour of Las Vegas, Nevada and making a solid living just picking games. Unfortunately, most of those dreams become very real nightmares. While many enthusiastic sports fans around the nation feel as though they have a knack for deciding the winners of games, most of the betting public lacks the basic money management skills to successfully turn a profit if they indeed possess the necessary handicap and market analysis skills to pick winners.
You see, the best sports handicappers in the world only win 55 to 58 percent against the point spread, or more commonly known as the ATS. Therefore, to turn a profit, professional sports bettors, or “investors,” only bet two to five percent of their bankroll to what is known in the profession as grinding to make a profit. For example, if one had a bank roll of a $1,000, an investor would bet between $20 and $50 depending on his or her confidence in the play. Furthermore, the house, which is either a casino or online betting site, charges 10 percent of winnings, called the VIG, or more commonly known in the betting world as “juice.” So a sports bettor would have to maintain a 52-percent handicap to just stay even and not drown in the juice.
Even when bettors try to stay disciplined, it isn’t uncommon for novice bettors to believe they have a sure thing and bet above the 5-percent threshold, which if lost can suck down a bettor’s bankroll quickly. Also, novice bettors have a tendency to bet above the threshold on big games or if they are on a losing streak. Investors will bet the same percentage on the Super Bowl as they would North Dakota State vs. Northern Iowa. Playing the long game by minimizing risk, reducing the amount of plays, and adjusting their bet amount as a percentage of bankroll allows sports wagerers to grow their bankroll like a stock portfolio.
Through practice you too can become a sports investor. Through practicing sound money management skills, you won’t burn a hole through your wallet as you grow and enjoy the hobby of sports wagering and hopefully turn a profit. Stay sharp out there.
Robert Larson’s Practical Picks of the Week
NFL 2019 Overall (7-4 ATS); Last Week (3-3 ATS)
Philadelphia (-6) vs Detroit
Public money has been on the Lions all week here due their last win over the injury-plagued Chargers and the injuries to the Eagles’ receiving core. But Philadelphia is superior in all other facets of the game. Fade the public and the Lions, who has had a shaky 1-0-1 start. Give the points for a Philadelphia home win by two scores. Also a good buy at -6.5 in the market. Avoid game at -7.5.
Trend: Home Team is 5-1 ATS in last six meetings.
Indianapolis vs. Atlanta (Pick ’em)
Public money is all over Atlanta here after last week’s Sunday night win over Philadelphia. Indianapolis, though, is coming off a nice road trip to start 1-1, which included a decisive win over the Titans and an overtime loss to the Chargers. Jacoby Brissett might not be Andrew Luck, but fade the public as Indy wins its home opener because the Colts returned most of their starters from last year’s playoff run and remains a team in contention for its division. And Atlanta has not proved itself on the road yet. Remember Minnesota? Indy is also a good play at -1 and -2 depending on when you buy the line in the market.
Trend: Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS Week 3.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Cleveland
Normally stay away from road favorites unless the visiting team has a solid defense. The Rams defense is indeed tough even with a banged up Aaron Donald, who is questionable Sunday night. Consensus with the public here as preseason darlings from Cleveland have just looked sloppy out of the gate and cannot overcome penalties. Cleveland will be out-coached here in primetime.
Trends: Rams are 6-1 ATS in last seven games. Cleveland is 1-7 ATS at home against teams with a winning record.
NCAA Football 2019 Overall (6-1-1 ATS); Last Week (3-0 ATS)
Oklahoma State (+6.5) at Texas
Oklahoma State brings its top-10 scoring offense to Austin. While the Longhorns might ultimately prevail here, expect the Cowboys to put up a fight in the city of the weird as usual. While the public money has been on Texas, the early sharp money was on the Cowboys. Stay away from Oklahoma State below +5.5 points.
Trend: Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS in last seven meetings in Austin.
University of Louisiana–Lafayette (+3.5) at Ohio University
The Ragin’ Cajuns’ only loss this year was to nationally-ranked and Power 5 Mississippi State, which maintains the fourth best total offense in the nation and a solid defense yielding 19 points per game. Fade the public sediment for Ohio University, returning home after two road losses. The Cajuns are bowl bound.
Trend: UL-Louisiana is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.
