With Super Sunday 2020 just around the corner, it’s time to find value on the NFL props betting markets to potentially fund your Sunday fun day and at the very least give you a rooting interest in the 54th playing of the big game to complete the NFL’s centennial season.
I’ve been betting on NFL postseason games in which I have no rooting interest simply for a reason to watch the NFL Playoffs. Since football is such an unpredictable sport with outcomes often affected by the bounce of an oddly shaped ball, an officiating crew’s odd call, or kickers, I mostly avoid betting against the spread. If I’m going to lose money, I want to have fun doing it, and betting the spread isn’t fun for me. Instead, I strictly bet props and parlays that give me the rooting interest I previously lacked and, potentially, a profit.
So far I’m up around $20 making $10 bets on props or parlays paying +300 or more with a weekly budget around $60. With one last chance to collect data on my NFL props and parlay, postseason betting strategy, here are the Super Sunday 2020 bets on which I’m super bullish.
Super Sunday 2020: San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, Feb. 2 in Miami, Florida
1) Third quarter to be the highest-scoring quarter (+378)
During the 2019 NFL season, the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs were second and sixth in third-quarter scoring, averaging 7.2 and 6.4 points scored, respectively. Over their last three games, however, the 49ers have averaged 7.7 points scored in the third quarter, and the Chiefs have scored 9.0 points on average.
With both teams likely to start slow given the super stress of Super Sunday, expect the scoreboard to change a lot in the third quarter after each coaching staff makes halftime adjustments. If you feel the need, hedge your bet by laying a wager on another quarter. The first quarter offers almost an identical return as the third, with the fourth quarter paying +185 and the second +161.
2) Patrick Mahomes to have at least 310 passing yards, Damien Williams to have at least 1 touchdown, Travis Kelce to have at least 7 receptions and Kansas City to Win (+305)
Mahomes has thrown for 310 or more passing yards in eight of 16 games this season, with one of those games ending early for him due to injury and three more ending early for the Chiefs due to blowing out their opponent. So unless Mahomes gets hurt or Kansas City makes quick work of San Francisco on Super Sunday, there’s probably a 75 percent chance Mahomes will throw for at least 310 yards.
In his last three games, Damien Williams has scored five touchdowns, and his 17 carries in the AFC Championship Game was the second-most he’s received this season. Kansas City head coach Andy Reid is making it a point to run the ball more in the playoffs, perhaps learning from past playoff losses.
Travis Kelce has seven or more catches in 10 of 18 games this season, and while San Francisco was the league’s best defense at limiting receiving yards for opposing tight ends, the 49ers are 10th in limiting opposing tight ends’ targets and receptions. Also, the best tight end in the Niners’ conference plays for them, so they haven’t seen a tight end like Travis Kelce and no NFC offense has the weapons to stretch their defense thin like the Chiefs’ offense will.
3) Sammy Watkins to have at least 89 receiving yards (+326)
Watkins had two catches go for 76 yards in the Chiefs’ playoff win over Houston, and he had seven catches for 114 yards in the AFC Championship Game against the Titans. As long as he doesn’t line up on Richard Sherman’s side of the field on every play, Watkins will be targeted enough to rack up those yards after the catch.
4) Patrick Mahomes to rush for at least 73 yards (+363) or 63 yards (+221)
Mahomes has rushed for 53 yards in each of the Chiefs’ two playoff games, but his season-high of 59 rushing yards came against the Chargers’ 18th-ranked run defense this season. Expect him to run for even more to avoid San Francisco’s fantastic, four-man pass rush. The middle of the field should be wide open early and often as San Francisco’s pass rushers push upfield behind Mahomes and defensive backs try to cover the Chiefs’ speedsters downfield while the 49ers’ linebackers try to contain Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce and the Chiefs’ running backs. The Niners won’t have the luxury of using a defender to shadow Mahomes if they’re going to slow Kansas City’s trio of receivers faster than anyone on their team.
Kansas City also plugged the holes in its run defense that allowed Indianapolis to run 45 times for 180 yards in a win on Oct. 6. The two other teams with regular season wins against Mahomes’ Chiefs (Houston and Tennessee; Green Bay beat Matt Moore by one score) didn’t come close to doing it again in the playoffs, despite KC spotting Houston a 24-0 lead. Houston and Tennessee amassed 94 and 85 yards rushing in those playoff losses, respectively. The Texans and Titans posted rushing totals of 192 and 225 yards, respectively, in their regular season wins over Kansas City.
If I could lay a bet on San Francisco’s defense getting five or more sacks I would, but apparently the only sacks that matter to my sportsbook are the ones resulting in safeties or turnovers. And since I don’t trust anything about the 49ers except their defense, and not necessarily to force a turnover, my money’s on the Chiefs, but not against the spread. Expect Mahomes to continue to look superhuman on Super Sunday, and be super bullish on these Super Bowl bets to give yourself something to watch and root for on Super Sunday.
