It took the Minnesota Wild more than 59 minutes and an extra skater to do something significant against the Calgary Flames, Thursday night. That significant something was Wild defenseman Matt Dumba expressing his team’s collective frustration culminating from a 10-day stretch that’s seen Minnesota fall from second in the Central Division to fifth and out of the Western Conference playoff picture. Dumba’s high but clean yet mostly unnecessary hit in the final minute on Calgary’s Mikael Backlund, whose head was down, drew the response of Ryan Lomberg, who initiated a line change and attacked Dumba. The resulting penalties gave the Wild a two-man advantage, which still wasn’t enough to sneak a goal by Calgary goaltender Mike Smith, who had 30 saves in the 2-0 shutout win.
A few weeks ago I wrote about how the Wild should win games if they get enough shots on goal unless goalies are standing on their heads. Smith was standing on his head in this one and has been for five games (seven goals allowed in five wins), but that doesn’t explain the Wild’s one win in their last five games. Minnesota goalie Devan Dubnyk simply hasn’t been himself, allowing 10 goals on 96 shots (.896 save percentage) over a four-game stretch. As Dubnyk goes, so do the Wild, but backup goalie Alex Stalock was good enough to win in Calgary. The Wild puckhandlers simply couldn’t handle the puck, which head coach Bruce Boudreau referenced after the game. So regardless of Minnesota’s goalie production, Dumba’s hit on Backlund will be a turning point for the Wild’s season, but which way will they turn?
The Case for a Wild Demise
Oh, Captain
The uncertain status of Wild captain Mikko Koivu’s knee after being tripped by Mike Giordano doesn’t bode well for the Wild’s chances of turning Dumba’s hit into a run of success. He’s Minnesota’s best man in the faceoff circles, lifting the team to ninth in the league in faceoff win percentage. Losing Koivu for any amount of time is an immediate obstacle Minnesota isn’t currently prepared to overcome. The next best faceoff winners for the Wild, Joel Eriksson Ek and Eric Fehr, are a combined -9 on the season, and their faceoff wins combined don’t equal Koivu’s.
Old and Slow
The Wild are also the oldest roster in the NHL, which is starting to show. Minnesota’s average age of 29.4 years could mean the Wild veterans are returning to Earth after a hot start to the season. There could be a lot of movement at the trade deadline if the Wild aren’t in the hunt come February 26, because new general manager Paul Fenton probably wouldn’t mind moving old legs and costly contracts for fresh legs and payroll flexibility.
The Case for a Wild Recovery
Veteran Presence
Minnesota’s experience could also work as a positive for the team, though. Guys like Zach Parise and Ryan Suter have been playing at less than 100 percent for a long time. It’s not unfeasible for them to continue doing so and doing so well, even at 34 years of age. Both have been worth three or more point shares this season.
Defensive Dumba
Dumba’s been the guy we all thought he could be offensively this season, with 10 goals and 19 points already, but his defense has still only been marginally better than Nick Seeler’s (1.3 point shares to 1.0). The Wild are -6 with Dumba on the ice, and his entire line could benefit from the hard hits he’s been delivering more often but not often enough this season. The Wild desperately need a bad guy to keep opponents uncomfortable.
Dubnyk’s Return to Form
Dubnyk hasn’t been the same since taking ill prior to a game against Winnipeg on Nov. 23, but there was an indication of a possible return to form in his 29-save win in Vancouver on Dec. 4. Dubnyk has been one of the most consistent goalies in the NHL over the past four-plus seasons, so it’s likely his .896 save percentage over those four games after taking ill was simply an isolated occurrence.
Who to Catch in the West
The Central Division is again the most competitive in the NHL, but the Western Conference playoff picture roughly a third of the way through the season has the Wild within reach of very reachable teams for the Wild Card. The Vegas Golden Knights are not one of them.
The Anaheim Ducks have allowed 11 more goals than they’ve scored thus far this season. Minnesota is responsible for much of that negative goal differential, beating them 5-1 in Anaheim on Nov. 9—the second of back-to-back road games for the Wild. With the Vegas Golden Knights coming into form (8-2-0 in their last 10 games), the Ducks won’t be sitting second in the Pacific for long.
The Dallas Stars have already fallen to Minnesota in Dallas this season and will visit Minnesota on Dec. 22, where the Wild are 8-4-2. They play each other twice more after that, once at home and once on the road. Given their identical goal differentials as of this writing (+6), the winner of one of the Western Conference Wild Card spots could be determined by whichever team wins the series between the former and current franchises representing the State of Hockey.
